The computational microscope: 28,000 pathway tests reveal how urban expansion triggers the hidden carbon-heat-haze cascade
Yuyang Zhang, Yazhou Hua, Wenke Ma, Zhenyu Luo, Ying Long, Yan Li
Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 232, 108944
This study conducts the first comprehensive data-driven theoretical hypothesis testing in urban environmental science, systematically evaluating existing theories through 28,848 pathway combinations across a global sample of 6488 cities, encompassing 4 urban expansion drivers, 9 environmental variables, 10 temporal configurations, 7 geographic regions, and 3 socioeconomic strata. The empirical validation reveals that current theories show expected probability distributions, but data-driven refinement identifies robust patterns: vegetation dynamics, not economic activity, dominates urban environmental outcomes, establishing an ecological efficiency paradigm. Temperature emerges as the critical mediating hub, connecting 80% of environmental transmission pathways in the carbon-heat-haze nexus. Environmental impacts exhibit pronounced 10-year lag effects, with medium-term policies achieving 87.5% effectiveness. Geographic disparities reveal theory boundaries: Asian cities follow predictable patterns (70% conformity) while European cities have fundamentally restructured cause-effect re - lationships. Middle-income countries experience peak environmental stress while high-income nations success - fully interrupt cascading processes. This study provides an empirical roadmap for precision urban governance aligned with sustainable development goals.
