Shrinking Cities: Identification, Mechanisms and Planning Response

在中国人口达峰和城镇化发展到达新阶段的背景下 ，关于中国收缩城市的研究成为近年来学界的一个关注点。本文基于系统性文献综述和实证研究等方法 ，讨论了戚伟等（地理研究，第 42 卷第 10 期）采用“城区常住人口 ”数据识别中国收缩城市的研究 。本文对中国全部的村级行政单元进行了地理编码 ，并基于城乡分类代码，近似绘制出戚伟等文中提到的“城区”边界。通过将这些边界与遥感图像 、城市实体地域进行比较，讨论了“城区常住人口”数据所界定的“城区范围 ”的特点 。进一步运用多源人口数据 ，从城市实体地域视角识别了中国 2010— 2020 年收缩城市的数量和占比 。研究发现：① 人口统计中的城乡分类代码所划分的城区 ，涵盖多个城市实体地域 ，难以分析各个城市实体地域内部的人口变化 。②“城区常住人口”数据难以全面展现近千个县域内中小城镇（如县城）的人口变化情况。本文运用中国 2444 个城市实体地域的边界 ，结合 WorldPop、LandScan 等多种数据源 ，发现中国收缩的城市实体地域数量占比在 26.7%~31.3%之间。有关中国收缩城市的识别，应当综合多源指标和多类研究的结论进行分析，从而减少单一数据源的不确定性对于识别结果的干扰。

Shrinking cities have become increasingly prevalent worldwide due to various factors, which pose serious challenges to affected areas in terms of population decline, economic decline, and spatial deterioration. While existing research studies have focused on identifying shrinking cities, there is a need for global projections to mitigate uncertainties in their growth trajectories. Spatially explicit population grids offer a new approach to identifying potentially shrinking cities with suf ficient spatial resolution. By utilizing a global gridded population dataset from 2020 to 2100 under the SSP2 (Middle of the Road) scenario, we produce a global projection map for future shrinking cities. Among the total 19,024 natural cities, 9682 cities (50.9%) will face population decline and 1751 cities (9.2%) may lose more than half population by 2100. Cities in East Asia and East Europe may face serious population decline.

As the world’s largest developing country, most Chinese cities are experiencing both population shrink- age and spatial expansion in the context of rapid urbanisation. T o address the negative impacts of urban shrinkage in a targeted manner, it is necessary to accurately identify shrinking cities in China. In this study, we utilise the sixth and latest seventh population census data to identify and map shrinking cities in China that are experiencing population loss between 2010 and 2020. As a result, we identified 1507 shrinking districts and counties (52% of all 2896 districts and counties in China), with a total area of 4.4 million km 2, covering almost 46% of China’s territory. In addition, we further found that from 2010 to 2020, there are 266 shrinking cities in China, an increase of 86 (12%) compared with 2000–2010. This indicates that the situation of shrinking cities in China has become more critical. From the perspective of spatial distribu- tion, Chinese shrinking cities are clustered, mainly in the northeast and central regions. W e also plot the proportion of shrinkage in a deformed form to reveal which prefecture-level cities are losing population from 2010 to 2020. Ourfindings provide policymakers and urban planners with a reference and warning that measures should be taken to adjust the growth-oriented planning paradigm to reverse the negative impact of population loss on urban development.

A number of studies focus on the global urban growth in the past ( Liu et al., 2020 ; Sun et al., 2020 )a n dt ot h e future ( Chen et al., 2020 ; Gao and O’Neill, 2020 ); however, urban shrinkage, as the other side of urban growth, is often neglected. Urban shrinkage is not a new phenomenon; though the driving factors for shrinking cities are complex and variegated; the deceleration of urban growth across the globe is hetero- geneous but is becoming a new reality. Shrinking cities are usually characterized by significant population loss ( Gu¨ neralp et al., 2017 ), economic decline ( Hudson, 2005 ), and physical disorder, including spatial decay ( Lee and Newman, 2017 ), and have become a common phenomenon throughout the world. The ex- isting SDG 11 was designed in the context of rapid urbanization; however, shrinking is a nonnegligible part of the urban future, which has not received enough attention. To sustain global economic prosperity in the face of plateauing urbanization and global urban shrinking, city authorities are urged to implement coping strategies to address population loss challenges ( Lu et al., 2015 ). For city administrators, this means policy responses that shift the focus from curbing urban sprawl to governing residents within shrunk city bound- aries. However, our understanding of how much the spatiotemporal changes of shrinking cities encompass the whole picture is limited.

Special Collection Announcement Shrinking Cities and Towns: Policy Responses to the Challenges, Urban Planning, and Development Strategies Xun Li Professor, Dept. Urban and Regional Planning, School of Geography and Planning, and China Regional Coordinated Development and Rural Construction Institute, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou 510275, China (corresponding author). ORCID: https:/ /orcid.org/0000-0002-7190-0853. Email: lixun@mail.sysu.edu.cn Eddie C. M. Hui Professor, Dept. Building and Real Estate, Faculty of Construction and Environment, Hong Kong Polytechnic Univ., Hong Kong SAR 00852, China. Email: eddie.hui@polyu.edu.hk Ying Long Associate Professor, Dept. Ur ban Planning and Design, School of Architecture, Tsinghua Univ., Beijing 10084, China. Email: ylong@mail .tsinghua.edu.cn Tingting Chen Associate Professor , Dept. Urban and Regional Planning, School of Geography and Planning, and China Regional Coordinated Development and Rural Construction Institute, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou 510275, China. Email: chentt53@mail.sysu.edu.cn Wei Lang Associate Professor , Dept. Urban and Regional Planning, School of Geography and Planning, and China Regional Coordinated Development and Rural Construction Institute, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou 510275, China.

Shrinking cities have spread across the globe in recent decades, characterizing signi ficant popula- tion loss, economic decline, and decay in spatial quality. T o maintain global economic prosperity in the context of urban shrinkage and support decision making in the direction, it is necessary to accurately identify shrinking cities on a global scale. We utilize rede fined natural city boundaries and the LandScan dataset to identify and map shrinking cities experiencing population loss on the globe. As a result, we have identi fied 5004 shrinking cities worldwide, with a total area of 126,930 km2 during 2000 –2019. The ratio of which in number and in area is 27% and 22%, respectively. The shrinking cities are clustered and mainly located in Europe, Eastern Asia, and northeastern United States. There are 41 countries with more than 20 shrinking cities on the globe. The number of shrinking cities in China reached 679, which is the most. Among the 41 countries, the median value of the natural cities ’ shrinking ratios of Iraq, Iran, Austria, South Africa, Russia, Georgia, and Belarus is >50%, indicating that the urban population loss in these countries is relatively serious. Our findings can be used to inform decision makers and urban Corresponding author: Ying Long, School of Architecture and Hang Lung Center for Real Estate, Key Laboratory of Ecological Planning & Green Building, Ministry of Education, Tsinghua University, 1 Qinghuayuan, Beijing 100084, China Email: ylong@tsinghua.edu.cn Featured Graphics A Economy and Space EPA: Economy and Space 1–5 © The Author(s) 2021 Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions DOI: 10.1177/0308518X211006118 journals.sagepub.com/home/epn planners to adjust the “growth-oriented” planning paradigm and adopt precise strategies, to form a healthier urban development.

收缩城市是快速城市化过程中不可忽视的一类城市 ， 按照城市人口变化格局 ， 开展收缩城市分类研究 ， 是发现城市人口 “ 空洞 ” 及变化特征的重要一环 。 国际上将收缩城市主要分为穿孔型 、 圈饼型和边缘型 ， 中国的收缩城市究竟包括哪些类型 ？ 尚缺少研究证实 。 本文以中国实体城市为分析单位 ， 利用百度慧眼 2016 年 11 月 ─ 2018 年 11 月 200 m 格网的常住人口数据 ， 发现常住人口减少的实体城市共 1506 座 ， 占实体城市总量 （ 3022 座 ） 的 49 . 8 % 。 选取人口较为密集且在研究时段内出现严重收缩现象的 126 座收缩城市为研究样本 ， 探讨中国收缩城市分类问题 。 分析表明 ： 126 座收缩城市样本多分布在秦岭淮河一线以北地区 ， 包括穿孔型 、 全局型 、 局部型 、 圈饼型 、 边缘型等 5 种类型 。 其中 ， 穿孔型收缩城市最多 ， 共 47 座 （ 37 . 3 % ） ， 为中国收缩城市的主导类型 ， 主要分布于黑龙江 、 内蒙古 、 甘肃 ； 全局型收缩城市有 33 座 （ 26 . 2 % ） ， 主要分布于甘肃 、 陕西 ； 局部型收缩城市有 25 座 （ 19 . 8 % ） ， 主要分布在黑龙江 、 内蒙古 ； 圈饼型收缩城市有 18 座 （ 14 . 3 % ） ， 主要分布在内蒙古 ； 边缘型收缩城市有 3 座 。 “ 重速度 、 轻质量 ” 的前半程城镇化 ， 以 “ 增长 ” 为主导的城市规划执念 ， 资源枯竭或经济转型导致传统工业企业衰落解体 ， 政府主动调整下的产业转移等是产生穿孔型收缩城市的主因 。 研究为政府精细调整城市发展重心 、 优化土地利用结构 、 提高城市宜居性 、 开展收缩语境下的城市规划与设计 ， 提供了科学依据 。

Shrinking cities, as a consequence of the globalization, have aroused great attentio n worldwide, which have been systematically an d theoretically studied abroad. Although in China, some 作者简介张恩嘉、孟祥凤、龙瀛，清华大学建筑学院； 雷链，中国城市规划学会； 吴康，首都经济贸易大学城市经济与公共管理学院； 吴冰，哈尔滨工业大学建筑学院； 蒋文、吴国强，重庆大学建筑城规学院； 陈婷婷、郎嵬，中山大学地理科学与规划学院； 李云，深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院； 张远景，黑龙江省城市规划勘测设计研究院。 摘要全球化背景下，城市收缩问题引起全世界广泛的讨论与研究。目前，国外学者对收缩城市已有较为系统的理论研究和实证探讨，而国内研究主要集中在收缩城市识别及客观认知层面，少有针对城市设计应对的探讨。 2019 年举办的“第一届中国收缩城市规划设计工作坊”，以资源收缩型的鹤岗市为例，探索通过城市设计手段应对城市收缩问题的可能路径，为我国收缩城市“瘦身强体”提供理论和实证基础。文章梳理并总结国外收缩城市应对的空间设计策略，整理并探讨工作坊成果，并将其与国外的实证案例进行对比分析。结果显示，国外经验中“规模缩减、 空间维护与愿景构造”等方式值得借鉴。在此基础上，工作坊成果结合中国城市建设特点，提出具有鹤岗市特色的设计思想和方法。文章将其归纳为三个阶段：“瘦身”—— 规模缩减与“空废”处理；“恢复” ——生态织补与社区营造；“强体”——特色挖掘与机遇创造。整体而言，工作坊成果在借鉴国外经验的基础上，关注我国城市特点， 对国内资源收缩型城市的设计应对有参考价值。 关键词人口流失；精明收缩；绿色基础设施；合理精简； 城市设计 1 引言 2019 年 4 月 8 日，国家发展改革委官网发布的《2019 年新型城镇化建设重点任务》指出“收缩型中小城市要瘦身强体， 转变惯性的增量规划思维， 严控增量、 盘活存量， 中国收缩城市的设计应对策略探索：以鹤岗工作坊为例 | 169 scholars have identified and understood th e phenomenon of urban shrinkage in the context o f China, there is little discussion on urban desig n strategies responding to shrinking cities. In 2019, the “First China Urban Planning and Design Studio for Shrinking Cities” was held in Hegang, a resource-exhausted city, aiming to explore urba n design strategies to help solve problems in shrinking cities. Under such a background, this research focuses on the case study of international shrinking cities, and conducts in-depth discussions on this workshop. The result shows that some actions in international cases such as downsizing the construction, s pace maintenance and strategic versions can be references for China’s shrinking cities. Based on thes e experiences, designs in this workshop fully combine characteristics in China’s urban planning and design, and propose some strategies involved with features o f Hegang. We summarize these strategies into thre e stages. The first stage is “losing weight”, whic h means reducing the scale of city and demolishin g vacant land-use and empty buildings; the second one is “recovery” with the help of Ecological Restoration and Place Making; the last one is “getting stronger” by fully embracing local characteristics and making new development opportunities. In a word, designs in this workshop, combining foreign experience with characteristics of China’s cities, are good references to other resource-exhausted cities in China.

Shrinking city is not a new concept in the study of urban science (Pallagst et al. 2013 ). The study of shrinking cities began with Häußermann and Siebel’s( 1988) work on population loss and eco- nomic decline in Germany. Recently, there have been an increasing number of studies on shrinking cities in Western developed coun- tries (Haase et al. 2014). It is generally believed that population loss is an important basis to quantify the shrinking of urban (town) areas, but the speci fic criteria are not uniform. Howe et al. ( 1998) discussed the development of four cities in Ohio using census data. Shrinking Cities International Research Network (SCIRN) identified cities with population loss lasting for more than two years as shrinking cities ( Wiechmann 2008 ; Pallagst et al. 2013 ). Oswalt and Rieniets ( 2006) argued that shrinking cities are cities with a decline of at least 10% of the total population or more than 1% of the annual average population loss rate. Schilling and Logan ( 2008)d e fined shrinking cities as cities with 25% or more persistent population loss, and increasing housing vacancy and abandonment rates over the past 40 years. Martinez-Fernandez et al. ( 2012) acknowledged that urban areas experiencing structural crises such as economic recession, population loss, employment de- cline, and social problems are shrinking cities. Bartholomae et al.

This edited volume brings together first-hand cases of shrinking cities in China, qualitative and quantitative methods, and planning responses to population loss. It is richly illustrated and connects regional evidence, city cases and practical planning questions.

This edited volume brings together first-hand cases of shrinking cities in China, qualitative and quantitative methods, and planning responses to population loss. It is richly illustrated and connects regional evidence, city cases and practical planning questions.

186 北京规划建设访谈 INTERVIEW 嘉宾：龙瀛（清华大学建筑学院特别研究员、博导，北京城市实验室创建人与执行主任） 本刊记者：文爱平龙瀛：收缩城市， 应多些顺势而为，少些逆势而上记者：最近黑龙江鹤岗市因为低房价上了热搜，火遍全国。“收缩城市”也随之进入大众视野。冰冻三尺非一日之寒，对于收缩城市其实学界早已有所研究，请问为什么会在现在这个时间节点上成为大家关注的热点呢？ 龙瀛：早在2015年中央财经领导小组第十一次会议上， 习近平主席已提出做好城市工作首先要认识、尊重、顺应城市发展规律，端正城市发展指导思想。后来在“十九大”报告中，习主席又提出要贯彻新发展理念、提高保障和改善民生水平、建设美丽中国。我国城市化在取得重大进展的同时，出现了局部收缩的问题。正是在这一背景下，各方开始关注城市发展规律，关注收缩城市等一系列问题。 从外部看，持续老龄化、抢人大战、减量规划……这些去年我国城镇化与城市区域空间发展绕不过的“关键词”都与收缩城市有关。武汉、成都、天津等城市以引进高校毕业生为主体，同时高规格引进国际顶尖专家及各行业杰出人才；郑州、 沈阳、西安、呼和浩特等城市把引进学历型人才的门槛降至中专，并放宽对高级工等专业技能人才的引进。多数二线和三四线城市都对学历型人才完全敞开怀抱，实行“零门槛”落户、 “先落户后就业”，家属随迁等。其中，多数城市对学历型人才进行大额补贴或买房打折、提供人才公寓等。“抢人大战” 促使我国人口向大城市及大都市区集聚。 今年4月8日，国家发改委发布的《2019年新型城镇化建设重点任务》提到，收缩型中小城市要瘦身强体，转变惯性的增量规划思维，严控增量、盘活存量，引导人口和公共资源向城区集中。这是官方文件中，首次提及“收缩型中小城市”的概念，这让收缩型城市的概念，从学术讨论的范畴上升到官方认可的层次。要求收缩型城市“瘦身强体”，是再明显不过的信号。城市不一定永葆青春，城市规划也不可能永远扩张，要接受局部收缩的现实。这也就意味着未来这些人口流失、产业衰退、城市空间不断闲置的城市有望成为另一种常态。总体上，还应该把收缩作为一个中性词来看待， 一些发达国家也存在局部收缩的现象，但不影响经济整体稳步发展的态势。 记者：国家发改委最新发布的规划文件提出，要推进常住人口基本公共服务全覆盖，包括实现公办学校普遍向随迁子女开放，建立统一的城乡居民医保制度等。城镇落户松绑，对收缩城市来说是喜是忧？ 龙瀛：国家发改委在《2019年新型城镇化建设重点任务》中，宣布要让超大、特大城市大幅增加落户规模，调整完善积分落户政策。其实，目前只有北京和上海依然严格控制户籍，全国其他超大、特大城市均已掀起“给钱给房直接入户”的人才大战。五年前发改委发布的规划文件，提出取消城区常住人口100万以下中小城市和小城镇的落户限制。在这基础之上，今年的规划文件又提出，城区常住人口100万至 300万大城市要全面取消落户限制，城区常住人口300万至500 万大城市要放开放宽落户条件并取消重点群体落户限制。这意味着一大批二三线城市，如哈尔滨、青岛、西安、洛阳、 宁波等将大幅降低落户门槛。 新政策将使特大城市集聚人口的规模扩大，同时加剧小规模城镇的收缩。进一步放宽户籍对于个人的发展机会应该是有利的，不过当劳动力涌向超大特大城市时，100万人口以下的小城市和城镇可能会出现局部收缩。以前不限制时，小城市的人口就在往大城市跑，这一限制，将导致更多的人口外流。目前的收缩城市，基本上都属于三线或以下，甚至是八线城市。

012 013 CITY HOTSPOTS _ EVENT 收缩城市研究带来的启示 ENLIGHTENMENT FROM THE STUDY OF SHRINKING CITIES 文+采访/佟鑫资料来源/上海金融与法律研究院 Interview / Libson Info Source / SIFL 2012年， 《城市中国》 杂志在编辑 《克拉玛依》 课题期间， 走访到克拉玛依市郊区的一处已被废弃的城镇， 住宅、 公园等设施应有尽有， 但不再有居民。 这里定期有市集， 农民设摊出售农产品和日用品给油田工人。 （摄影/朱骞） In 2012, during editing the topic of Karamay, Urban China magazine visited an abandoned town in the suburbs of Karamay, with all kinds of facilities such as houses and parks, but no residents. There are regular markets where farmers set up stalls to sell agricultural products and daily necessities to oilfield workers. (Photo / ZHU Qian) 2019年3月13日， 清华大学建筑学院研究员、 博士生导师、 北京城市实验室创始人龙瀛应邀在上海金融与法律研究院举办的 “鸿儒论道” 第140期中主讲 “收缩城市： 城市化的另外一面” 。 龙瀛首先指出， 城市和人一样， 都有类似生老病死的自身发展规律。 收缩城市一语中的 “收缩” 是比较中性的词， 并不是指这个城市一定是破败、 失落甚至是腐朽的。 研究收缩城市， 就是认识、 尊重并顺应城市发展的一般规律。 这也符合国家政策等方面的要求。 4月8日国家发改委发布了 《2019年新型城镇化建设重点任务 》 ， 其中提到 “收缩型中小城市要瘦身强体， 严控增量、 盘活存量， 引导人口和公共资源向城区集中” 。 这是国家层面首次在官方文件中提出与收缩城市研究相呼应的说法。 准确识别收缩城市 ACCURATE IDENTIFICATION OF SHRINKING CITIES 关于收缩城市的定义， 龙瀛提出， 基本的共识是用人口数据来判断城市是否收缩， 而不是从经济的角度， 但在判断一个城市是否出现收缩现象时， 不能简单地用统计年鉴上的人口数据来判断。 一方面， 在非人口普查统计年， 统计年鉴上的数据多为估算得出， 并不准确； 另一方面， 中国的城市边界变动较多， 和历史人口数据之间经常对应不上。 北京城市实验室的研究显示， 全国六百多个城市 （ 行政意义） 中的一百多个 ， 2014年的行政边界与2010年不同， 比如撤县设区、 撤县设市等。 这造成了中国城市统计的断代。 为了解决这个问题， 龙瀛提到依靠大数据手段做数据补充是必要的。用来源于五普（2 0 0 0 年）、六普（2 0 1 0 年）的乡镇街道办事处的人口数据， 通过数据对比能看到乡镇和街道办事处尺度人口的变化。 2020年人口普查数据出来之后， 若再进行比较研究， 有望更确切地从人口角度反映中国城市化的变化。 在识别收缩城市时， 确定中国有多少城市也是一个问题。 在这一点上， 龙瀛谈到了团队在研究过程中认识到了存在的问题并予以改进。 最初的收缩城市研究用的是行政上的城市概念， 也就是市辖区的范围。

This output forms part of the Beijing City Lab research direction on Shrinking Cities: Identification, Mechanisms and Planning Response. Download the publication below.

5ज ఓൕ ࢘ ᆽຯđ৙`፸ <ᅋ ` ေ>Ⴟྍઔक़න Ԥഈđิ ၹb๝ ༅҂๝ো྘൬෪Ӭ ఓൕb Ս >Ġྍઔक़නᇶၬĠఓൕ >ݼ `>ݼ 56`< ໓ངѓ്઒ >" ൔ >ఓൕ ഽđ  ğ  The Formation And Planning Of Shrinking Cities: From New Marxism Urban Theory/Du Zhiwei, Li Xun [Abstract]
Shrinking cities with population decline and economic recession have caught wide attention of planning researchers. With neo-Marxist urban theories, the paper explains the concept, formation, and types of shrinking cities from capital fl ow viewpoint. The paper proposes city shrinking is the spatial expression of over-accumulation of crises, and capital-labor surplus is the major underlying reason of city shrinkage. Based on global economic fl ow characters, the paper analyzes the shrinking formation mechanism from affi liation, industrial dislocation, suburbanization, local institution, and indicates the illumination of shrinking cities for Chinese urban development. [Key words] Shrinking cities, Capital fl ow, Neo-Marxism, Illumination ႄ࿽ đӬ൧൬෪ $JUZ
খ ࡀ ӱđ Ⴕჿ ದ१ੀാ<>bቋྍඔऌཁൕđ ၘሹุ ֒ ཛଢ > >ࢺࡥ ཛଢ a ᆽຯളb ৙`፸ഽb ؓ ᇶӻದე >ක๼ ԛ ࣉ࣮ ਔ ܿ ᅚषฐ Ⴕၭҕॉb >ࢺࡥ ৙`፸຾ჴb ੃`ᜩ૝඀Ӊb

中国的城镇化长期是建立在 “ 增长模式 ” 下的顶层设计 ， 城市增长与空间扩张是地理学者与规划政策界关注的经典命题 。 随着全球发展格局变化及中国 “ 新常态 ” 转型的来临 ， 以中西部中小城市人口向东部迁移导致的发展放缓或停滞 ， 以东北城市为代表的 “ 局部收缩 ” 已初见端倪 ， 而在金融危机后 ， 东部的工业城市也出现了部分 “ 收缩 ” 的空间 。 “ 收缩 ” 表现为人口外流 、 GDP 和地方财政增长乏力乃至城市空间衰败 。 如何科学辩证地认识城市增长 、 空间扩张与局部收缩的发生和转化机制 ， 如何在慢增长或逆增长环境下实现城市可持续发展 ， 是未来中国城镇化研究的重大挑战 ， 也是地理 、 规划和相关学科学者亟需重点关注和研究的新命题 。 本期笔谈邀请了来自人文地理 、 城市规划 、 区域经济和公共管理等学科领域的学者就城市收缩的科学界定 、 识别方法以及后增长时代下中国城市可持续发展的规划设计响应路径等话题开展学术争鸣与讨论 。

]尽管当前国际上收缩城市的研究对象主要集中在西方发达国家，但已有不少报告指出发展中国家也具有相当数量的收缩城市。文章通过梳理收缩城市的研究理论，结合国内城市规划同行对收缩城市的理解，确定研究的对象与问题。 在此基础上， 对东北地区的收缩城市进行识别与分析， 并选取收缩现象较显著的黑龙江省伊春市作为个案研究， 结果发现 ： 东北地区的收缩城市既受区域性少子化、边缘性和制度变迁等问题影响，又带有资源型城市的共性问题，而个案城市的特性问题也在很大程度上导致了人口的收缩；对比西方的资源型收缩城市，伊春的人口收缩有着更为复杂的成因并出现了 “退二进一”“逆城镇化”等特殊现象，由此提出相应的规划对策与建议。 [

Featured Graphic Shrinking cities in a rapidly urbanizing China Ying Long Beijing Institute of City Planning, China Kang Wu Capital University of Economics and Business, China Many cities across particular areas in Europe and North America have a dwindling population, emerging vacant spaces, and the underuse of existing urban infrastructure (Haase et al., 2014). As one of the more prosperous urbanized countries in the world, China has witnessed an unprecedented active stage of urban expansion (see the Beijing City Lab Ranking 8 for details, http://www.beijingcitylab.com/ranking/), which also attracted extensive attention from academics (Deng et al., 2010). Our previous study on mushingrooming Jiedaos (the basic administrative unit of a city proper) indicates that urbanization in China often involves a significant political dimension. Largely rural settlements (e.g., Zhen) could be accorded with the city status (e.g., Jiedao) overnight by administrative power, which further accelerates the urban process (Wu et al., 2015). Meanwhile, some large cities and inshore developed cities in East China have attracted huge numbers of migrants from rural areas and small cities during the last ten years. Vacant villages have been widely reported in the context of China (Long et al., 2012), while we observe shrinkage at township and city levels.

When optimising the overall commuting pattern for a city or a region, there are often winners and losers among commuters at the subdivision level. Losers are those who are burdened with longer commutes than before the optimisation. Knowing who or where losers are is of interest to both researchers and policy-makers. The information would help them efficiently locate losers and compensate them. Few, however , pay attention to such losers. By revisiting ‘excess commut- ing’ in the economic framework, we show that optimising the commuting pattern is comparable to restoring Pareto optimality in commuting. Using Beijing as a case study, we identify and geo- visualise the losers when the city’s bus commuting pattern is optimised. We examine the severity of the loss among the losers, the spatial pattern of the losers and their influencing factors. We find that most losers are located around the epicenter . The severity of the loss is independent of jobs/housing ratio but is associated with the commute distance before the optimisation. Workers whose commute distance is less than the global average are more likely to become losers. Places where losers reside have significantly lower employment density in a few industries than where non-losers reside. A low jobs/housing ratio in individual subareas does not necessarily increase the average trip length of commuters therein. A low jobs/housing ratio of one or several subar- eas, however , could influence the average trip length of all the commuters in the area. Locating diverse jobs and housing opportunities around or along transit corridors could compensate the losers and reduce the overall commuting cost.

This output forms part of the Beijing City Lab research direction on Shrinking Cities: Identification, Mechanisms and Planning Response. Download the publication below.

本期聚焦 ： 收缩城市 —— 国际经验和中国现实在经历了三十多年的高速增长以后 ， 推动中国城市发展的三驾马车出现了变化 ， 全球金融危机引发的出口加工工业开始出现衰退 ， 国内劳动力增长出现刘易斯拐点以及城市土地财政市场出现紧缩 ， 中国城市发展正在脱离原有的快速发展轨道 ， 出现了城市增长的分化 。 其中 ， 城市收缩的出现已经成为当今中国城市发展的新现象之一 。 国际上收缩城市的研究由来已久 ， 案例不乏北美 、 欧洲和曰本等城市 ， 背后的原因各异 。 在中国 ， 收缩现象还为增长的主流所忽视或不愿意看到 ， 这导致了对城市收缩的机制 、 影响与判断的框架缺乏研究 ， 在一个从扩展性规划向存量规划转变的过程中 ， 城乡规划的理论和方法没有提供足够的储备 ， 导致现在规划实践上人口必须増长的桎梏观念还鲜有突破 。 收缩城市方面的研究 ， 无论是国际经验 、 国内现状 、 规划建议等 ， 对于国内学界和实践界还是个新生事物 ， 但是一些地区城市的收缩现象已经为中国城市收缩的研究提供了案例 ， 为此组织收缩城市研究专辑 ， 介绍国际经验 、 分析国内现状 、 剖析典型案例等 ， 率先在国内提出研究 “ 收缩城市 ” 的呼声 ， 引起学界和实践界的共识 。 本期主题共包括五篇文章 ， 主要关注收缩城市的中国研究 ： （ １ ） 周恺等针对收缩城市国际国内近十年的研究进展的综述 ， 对城市收缩的概念和研究的内容进行界定 ， 为国内的城市收缩的研究提供了一个很好的基点 ； （ ２ ＞ 龙瀛等以街道为单位的人口研究 ， 对中国收缩城市的识别 、 分类和影响因素进行探索性研究 ， 提出了未来研究框架 ； （ ３ ） 杨东峰等基于影像数据的人口流失指数和扩张指数的计算 ， 对快速城市化过程中的人口流失与用地空间扩张的悖论进行了分析 ； （ ４ ） 吴康等撰写的针对京津冀和长三角的收缩城市的比较研究 ， 是对巨型城市区域出现新问题的探索 ； （ ５ ） 李郇等撰写的针对珠江三角洲的收缩城市研究 ， 强调了珠三角局部出现的收缩现象的存在 ， 并通过案例分析城市收缩出现的宏微观机制 。 城市收缩的研究在中国处在起步阶段 ， 面对不断变化的宏观环境 ， 城市研究者需要为新形势下的城市发展提供前瞻性的研究 。 龙滅李邮 １

This output forms part of the Beijing City Lab research direction on Shrinking Cities: Identification, Mechanisms and Planning Response. Download the publication below.