Microsimulation and Behavioral Models

This article appeared in a journal published by Elsevier. The attached copy is furnished to the author for internal non-commercial research and education use, including for instruction at the authors institution and sharing with colleagues. Other uses, including reproduction and distribution, or selling or licensing copies, or posting to personal, institutional or third party websites are prohibited. In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or institutional repository. Authors requiring further information regarding Elsevier’s archiving and manuscript policies are encouraged to visit: http://www.elsevier.com/authorsrights Author's personal copy Disaggregating heterogeneous agent attributes and location Ying Long a,⇑, Zhenjiang Shen b a Beijing Institute of City Planning, Beijing 100045, China b School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kanazawa 920-1192, Japan article info Article history: Received 12 May 2011 Received in revised form 27 August 2013 Accepted 9 September 2013 Available online 8 October 2013 Keywords: Agent-based models (ABMs) Disaggregation Population synthesis Aggregate data Agenter abstract The use of micro-models as supplements for macro-models has become an accepted approach into the investigation of urban dynamics. However, the widespread application of micro-models has been hin- dered by a dearth of individual data, due to privacy and cost constraints.

More energy is being consumed as urbanization spreads. Extensive research has found that a dominant share of urban energy consumption belongs to transportation energy, which has a strong relationship with urban form in the intracity level. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between urban form, transportation energy consumption, and its environmental impact in the inner-city level. This chapter aims to investigate the impact of urban form, namely, the land-use pattern, distribution of development density, and the number and distribution of job centers on the residential commuting energy consumption (RCEC). We developed a multi-agent model for the urban form, transportation energy consumption, and environmental impact integrated simulation (FEE-MAS). Numerous distinguishable urban forms were generated using the Monte Carlo approach in the hypothetical city. On the one hand, the RCEC for each urban form was calculated using the proposed FEE-MAS; on the other hand, we selected 14 indicators (e.g., Shape Index, Shannon’s Diversity Index, and Euclidean Nearest Neighbor Distance) to evaluate each generated urban form using the tool FRAGSTATS, which is loosely coupled with the FEE-MAS model. Afterward, the quantitative relationship between the urban form and RCEC was identified using the calculated 14 indicators and RCEC of all generated urban forms. Several Y. Long ( *) Beijing Institute of City Planning, No. 60 South Lishi Road, Beijing 100045, China e-mail: longying1980@gmail.com Q.-z. Mao School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China e-mail: qizhi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn Z.-j. Shen School of Environment Design, Kanazawa University, Kakuma Machi, Kanazawa City 920-1192, Japan e-mail: shenzhe@t.kanazawa-u.ac.jp M. Kawakami et al. (eds.), Spatial Planning and Sustainable Development: Approaches for Achieving Sustainable Urban Form in Asian Cities , Strategies for Sustainability, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-5922-0_13, # Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013 227 conclusions were drawn from simulations conducted in the hypothetical city: (1) the RCEC may vary three times for the same space with various urban forms; (2) among the 14 indicators for evaluating urban form, the patch number of job parcels is the most significant variable for the RCEC; (3) the RCECs of all urban forms generated obey a normal distribution; and (4) the shape of an urban form also exerts an influence on the RCEC.

In this chapter, we propose an approach for negotiation between planners and developers by identifying the required spatial policies for predefined alternative plans. Recently, the constrained cellular automata (CA) method has been exten- sively applied to simulate urban growth for predicting future urban forms (Wu 1998; Ward et al. 2000; Yeh and Li 2001; He et al. 2008). However, an alternative plan, which is prepared by planners during the plan compilation process, has been used in the decision-making process of the urban master plan worldwide. In China, practical urban growth often deviates from the planned urban form, resulting in the planned urban form being broken. Local planning authorities who lack policy guidance have little knowledge of the exact policies related to the planned form and their differences with current policies. Given this situation, urban policies required for the planned urban form are a governmental concern. If the simulated urban form using constrained CA can be accepted as a reasonable form by planners, then the simulated results can be possibly used for the deliberation in the local planning committee among planners, developers, and other stakeholders. Urban form must be given ample attention because it guarantees sustainable development. Inappropriate urban forms such as sprawled urban forms may have negative effects on society, including overconsumption of land resources (Kahn 2000; Landis 1995; Johnson 2001);

In this paper we propose an approach to identify the spatial policy parameters (termed the implementation intensity reflecting planning controls on corresponding spatial constraint) associated with a predefined alternative plan, namely, a predefined- binary urban form. During plan implementation, the alternative plan cannot be fully realized in some cases due to practical urban growth driven by both institutional forces and market incentives, which are comprehensive and complex. Few researchers have investigated spatial policies appropriate for an alternative plan. We aim to propose a novel approach incorporating constrained cellular automata and regionalized sensitivity analysis, a method for global sensitivity analysis to calculate the realization possibility and identify the spatial policy parameters for an alternative plan. This approach is first tested in a virtual space with four predefined urban forms and various point, line, and polygon spatial constraints, with both positive and negative impacts on urban growth. Finally, the approach is also tested in the Beijing Metropolitan Area to identify the required spatial policy parameters for four alternative plans with seven spatial constraints.

In planning practice, planners and policy makers frequently investigate urban forms, particularly urban growth boundaries (UGBs), using scenario analyses (SA) by regarding development policies as scenario conditions in urban simulations (i.e., Klosterman 1999; Landis 1994, 1995). Couclelis (2005), however, argued that routine land-use modeling has done little in the way of future-oriented research such as investigations of desirable or feared future conditions. This chapter uses planning alternatives, specifically UGBs, as scenarios to identify necessary spatial policies for planners. This is the inverse procedure of traditional urban growth SA. We propose the concept of “form scenario analysis” (FSA), which we employ to investigate relationships between planning alternatives and corresponding spatial policies. This chapter explains an FSA approach using constrained cellular automata (CA), a tool for matching planning alternatives with necessary spatial policies. We look in particular at form scenarios in order to present the institutional implications of different spatial land-use policy options. This novel exploration of FSA can identify necessary policies as well as policy variations required for different planning alternatives. This differs from traditional applications of constrained CA. Y. Long ( *) Beijing Institute of City Planning, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China e-mail: longying1980@gmail.com Z.

This chapter is a case study of a planning support system (PSS) for urban growth control, in which the Beijing Metropolitan Area is used as an example to demon- strate the implementation of the planning support system. Generally, encroachment on open space and natural resources caused by urban sprawl has drawn worldwide attention and posed enormous challenges to sustainable human development. The possible negative impacts of urban sprawl include increased land consumption, infrastructure construction costs, commuting distance, traffic congestion, energy consumption, and air pollution (Burchell 1998; Anas and Rhee 2006). However, little attention has been paid to urban growth control planning (UGCP), considering various control factors and their indicators, or the possible application of PSS to these problems. Currently, PSS is regarded as the latest form of computer-aided planning system (Klosterman and Richard 1997; Brail and Klosterman 2001; Stillwell 2002; Geertman and Stillwell 2004). It was initially proposed by Harris ( 1960). Several books have been edited in recent years regarding the most frequently discussed PSS (Brail and Klosterman 2001; Geertman and Stillwell 2002; Stillwell 2002; Brail 2008; Geertman and Stillwell 2009). The fundamental characteristics of PSS include its systematic, dynamic and interactive nature. It has been mainly applied in spatial plans (Kammeier 1999;

This paper is a case study of a planning support system (PSS) for the Chinese termed ‘‘Xianjianqu plan’’ (hereafter the ‘‘urban con- tainment plan’’), of the Beijing Metropolitan Area (BMA). The urban containment plan is required as a precondition of urban spatial developments for both urban master plans and district detail plans under the City Planning Law of the People’s Republic of China, which was issued by the National People’s Congress of China, and enacted on January 1, 2008. In China, an urban containment plan categorizes areas into two zones: areas where urban develop- ments are partially controlled, and areas where urban develop- ments are totally controlled and prohibited ( He, 2008 ). Factors regarding partial control in urban containment plans include con- strained land-use types, building height, urban activities, as well as underground developments. In this paper, an urban containment planning support system (UC-PSS) is developed according to the framework of the Beijing urban containment plan based on various local plans and regulations. The UC-PSS, which borrows ideas of uniform analysis zones (UAZs) from the planning support system What If? proposed by Klosterman (1999) , is developed on an ESRI’s ArcGIS platform to support the compiling of an urban containment plan. An urban containment plan may involve urban development policies such as natural resource protection and risk prevention.

This output forms part of the Beijing City Lab research direction on Microsimulation and Behavioral Models. Download the publication below.

目前自上而下的城市系统宏观模拟并不能解决城市这一复杂系统中出现的部分问题 ， 城市系统微观模拟 ( 如多主体系统 MAS) 已经成为城市系统模拟的新思路 ， 其主要是基于个体数据 ( 如个人 、 家庭 、 公司或建筑物 ) 开展的 。 国际国内这方面的应用都受到个体样本稀缺的限制 。 微观模拟所需要的个体样本数据是原有的统计制度所不能适应的 ， 尤其是在中国 ， 个体样本在统计公报或年鉴中不公开 ， 仅可通过典型调查来补充 。 本文旨在探索稀疏数据环境下构建城市系统微观模拟的个体样本数据的新方法 。 该方法基于已有的多源统计数据 、 典型调查数据以及个体的通用规则 ， 反演出个体样本的属性信息和空间分布 ， 进而可以以 GIS 图层的形式直接作为微观模拟的数据基础 。 通过本方法获取的样本 ， 能够符合已有的统计资料 ， 并遵照了样本的基本特征 ， 可以作为现有数据条件下的微观模拟模型的数据输入 。 同时该方法的应用简单 ， 统计意义上的准确度高 ， 适合我国统计制度下的微观模拟模型的构建 。

城市能耗占全球能耗的比重随着城市化率的不断提高而增大 ， 交通能耗作为城市能耗的重要构成部分 ， 已有较多研究证明城市形态对其具有显著影响 ， 这些研究多属于城市间层次 ， 而少有城市内的研究对城市形态与交通能耗 、 环境影响的关系进行定量识别 。 本文拟建立城市形态 、 交通能耗和环境的集成模型 ， 对单一城市内的不同空间组织 ( 即城市形态 ) ， 如土地使用方式 、 开发密度 、 就业中心的数量和分布等 ， 对潜在的通勤交通能耗和环境影响的关系进行定量识别 。 该模型采用多智能体 (multi-agent) 方法 ， 一方面针对同一假想空间采用蒙特卡洛方法根据约束条件生成多个城市形态 ， 并采用就业地斑块数目 、 平均斑块分形指数 、 香农多样性和平均近邻距离等 14 个指标表征城市形态 。 另一方面 ， 固定数量的居民 agent 在所生成的每个城市形态内 ， 选择居住区位和就业区位 ， 根据通勤距离和社会经济特征选择交通方式 ， 进而计算通勤交通能耗和环境影响 ， 在城市层面统计通勤交通能耗和环境影响总和 。 最后分析城市形态与通勤交通能耗和环境影响的定量关系 ， 主要得到以下结论 ， ① 对于不同的城市空间布局和密度分布 ， 通勤交通能耗的弹性范围约为 3 倍 ； ② 城市形态评价指数中 ， 就业中心斑块的数量是对通勤交通能耗影响最大的变量 ； ③ 多种城市形态所对应的通勤交通能耗基本呈正态分布 。 此外 ， 还对城市形状对通勤交通能耗的影响进行了识别 ， 并针对假想空间的多个典型城市形态 ( 如紧凑与分散 、 单中心与多中心 、 TOD 政策 、 绿隔政策 ) ， 进行了通勤交通总量的计算 ， 进而对典型规划理念进行了定量对比 。 本模型不仅可以用于识别城市形态与通勤交通能耗和环境影响的定量关系 ， 定量对比典型的规划理念 ， 还可以用于空间规划方案的能耗和环境影响评价 。

—As the traditional top-bottom based macro-simulation models cannot well adapt to spatiotemporally dynamic urban systems researches, the bottom-up micro-simulation models (e.g., multi-agent systems, MASs) based on individual data have gradually become a novel and dominating perspective for investigating urban dynamics. However, one of the factors restraining the wide application of micro-simulation models is l the poor availability of disaggregated individual data. Such situation is especially serious in China, because the individual data from the official census is not available and can only be obtained via various small-scale surveys conducted by separate units. The contribution of this paper is to propose a solution to retrieve individuals’ data from aggregated dataset, e.g. official statistical yearbook, census reports and contingent questionnaire reports, for urban micro-simulation under the current sparse- individual-data context. Based on the existing multi-source official statistical date, non-official surveys, as well as general relationships among individuals’ attributes (e.g., the marriage condition of a person depends on his/her age), this approach can inverse both the individuals’ attributions and spatial distribution. The approach was tested in the Beijing Metropolitan Area for retrieving the population spatial distribution and their attributes using the Fifth Population Census Report of Beijing, in which the aggregated information of populations is provided. The inversion results were proved to be significantly accurate in statistical level. Using the inversed samples’ as the input of the urban micro- simulation models is promising to settle their bottle-neck problems for wide application. Key words: micro-simulation; inversion; multi-agent system; statistical data I.

本文旨在探讨城市形态（如土地使用方式、开发密度、就业中心数量和分布等）对城市居民的通勤交通能耗的影响。城市能耗占全球能耗的百分比也随着城市化率的不断提高而增大， 交通能耗是城市能耗的重要构成部分，诸多文献提出城市形态对交通能耗存在较大的影响。然而目前少有城市内的研究，对城市形态对交通能耗的影响进行定量识别。本文拟开发城市形态－交通能耗－环境集成的多智能体（multi-agent）模型，针对同一假想空间采用蒙特卡罗方法生成大量不同的城市形态，并采取就业地斑块数目、平均斑块分形指数、香农多样性和平均近邻距离等 14 个指标进行城市形态的表征，基于多智能体模型计算每个城市形态所对应的通勤交通出行总量（正比于通勤交通能耗和环境影响），进而分析城市形态与交通能耗的响应关系，以期识别低交通能耗的城市形态（即低碳城市形态）的基本特征，作为对紧凑城市、低碳城市等规划理念的理论阐述。 此外，还针对假想空间的多个典型城市形态（如紧凑与分散、单中心与多中心、TOD 政策、绿隔政策），进行了通勤交通总量的计算，进而对常规规划理念进行了定量对比。

约束性元胞自动机 (Constrained cellular automata ， Constrained CA) 在模拟城市增长方面已有诸多实践 ， 已有文献常利用各种反映土地利用需要 、 区位影响 、 管理制度等的政策参数 ， 设定不同的城市空间发展情景以反映未来的城市形态 。 在基于约束性 CA 进行城市形态情景分析时 ， 以各种政策参数作为情景条件的研究实例较多 。 而在中国的城市规划实践中 ， 城市规划用于建设管理的审批 ， 对应明确的城市形态 ， 因而如何利用城市形态作为情景条件分析所需政策 ， 也有实践意义 ， 可以解决一些广为关注的重要问题 ， 例如已有的发展政策是否与期望的城市形态相匹配 ， 不同规划方案所需采取的政策有什么区别等 。 本文提出了以城市形态作为情景条件 ( 即形态情景分析 ) 的新方法 ， 该方法基于约束性 CA ， 改变了传统的约束性 CA 情景条件的设置方法 ， 以期望的未来城市形态为目标 ， 识别相应需要的发展政策 。 并将北京市域的 4 个规划城市形态作为情景条件进行了实证分析 ， 对多个规划方案实施的可能性和政策参数进行对比分析 ， 证明该方法具有较好的适用性和可行性 ， 是将约束性 CA 的应用扩展到城市规划领域的又一尝试 。

Reference Number - 84 1 Form scenario analysis using constrained CA1 Ying LONG PhD candidate School of Architecture Tsinghua University Beijing, China Tel: (+86) 1366 1386 623 Fax: (+86-10) 6803 1173 Email: longying1980@gmail.com Zhenjiang SHEN Associate professor School of Environment design Kanazawa University Kanazawa, Japan Tel: (+81-76) 2344 650 Fax: (+81-76) 2344 650 Email: shenzhe@t.kanazawa-u.ac.jp Qizhi MAO Professor School of Architecture Tsinghua University Beijing, China Tel: (+86-10) 6278 7626 Fax: (+86-10) 6278 3328 Email: qizhi@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn Anrong DANG Professor School of Architecture Tsinghua University Beijing, China Tel: (+86-10) 6278 3328 Fax: (+86-10) 6277 0314 Email: danrong@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn Abstract: Future urban form is hard to be accurately predicted and simulated because of existing uncertainty in ur ban development. Scenario analysis has been widely applied in the realm of urban and regional planning. In most of current scenario analysis research of urban growth, developi ng policies are set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms, which can be referred to by policy makers and urban planners. The perspecti ve of this paper has reve rsed the line of current scenario analysis for urban growth, in which the term of form scenario analysis (FSA), a spatially explicit approach, is novelly defined, employing urban form as scenario condition and aiming at identifying whether any policies set can be implemented to realize the pre-defined form. If yes, what the detailed policy implications are for the scenario form will be answered. A constrai ned cellular automata model (CA) is developed for FSA, which is similar with co nstrained CA calibration using historical observed forms. Four planned schemes of Beijing Master Plan 2020 for Beijing metropolitan area are analyzed using constr ained CA to test FSA approach, and corresponding required policy parameters are generated, together with policy implications. FSA is proved to be suitable for urban planning practice.

This paper investigated the methodology, implementation and application of the planning support system for urban growth control planning (UGC-PSS). Urban growth control has been a frequently mentioned conception in the field of worldwide urban planning. To address this issue, most literatures only focused on determining urban growth constrained level (e.g. construction forbidden area, construction limited area) or establishing urban growth boundaries. However, urban growth is generally constrained by many constrained factors (CFs) in form of several control indicators, such as land use type control, urban activity control, building height control, and underground development control, besides constrained level. Therefore, in the paper we novelly developed a PSS based on uniform analysis zone (UAZ), a data structure for vector dataset. In the PSS, various CFs and corresponding control indicators mentioned above were taken into account to analyze comprehensive and complex urban control system and support the scheme compilation of ur ban control planning. Negative urban form was also brought forward accordingly to explicitly show the combined constrain of urban growth by all control indicators. UGC-PSS we developed was capable of calculating UAZ-based planning control zoning scheme using the control indicators of all CFs, and outputting the scheme as many partitions automatically for the use of planning practices. UGC-PSS was empirically implemented using common commercial GIS platform and applied in urban growth planning of Beijing metropolitan area. It has been demonstrated to be capable to handle 60 constrained factors with different constrained indicators, as well as generate and output the massive planning scheme automatically, thereby increasing the planning efficiency effectively.

—The paper proposes an approach to identify the required policy parameters for the predefined binary urban forms. In current Chinese planning practices, planned forms were occasionally broken through by the practical urban growth driven by both institutional forces and market incentives. Few related researches pay attention to the developing pathways identification for the desired or feared urban form. Therefore, we aim to explore the problems faced by the planning practice and theory. A novel approach integrating constrained cellular automata (CA) and HSY algorithm is developed to identify policy parameters for predefined urban form as well as global sensitivity analysis of the model. The approach was firstly tested in a virtual space with four predefined forms and six constraints including point, line and polygon types, positive and negative respectively for each type. The approach was demonstrated to be capable to identify developing pathways for predefined forms respectively. Hereafter, the approach was also tested in the Beijing Metropolitan Area for four planned form scenarios with seven spatial policies. Through the introduction of parameter identification into planning practices, the impossible form can be eliminated at the very first of the urban plan to guarantee the implementation of the planned form. Moreover, the identified policy parameters can be used by decision makers to design the exact developing pathway towards the desired form.

Urban form in future is hard to be accurately predicted and simulated because of existing uncertainty in urban development. Scenario analysis has been widely applied in the realm of urban and regional planning. In most of current scenario analysis of urban growth, developing policies are set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms, which can be referred by policy makers and planners. The perspective of this paper has reversed the line of current scenario analysis for urban growth, in which the term of form scenario analysis (FSA), a spatially explicitly approach, is novelly defined, employing urban form as scenario condition and aiming to identify whether any policies set can be implemented to realize the form. If yes, what the detailed policy implications are for the scenario form. A constrained cellular automata model (CA) is developed for FSA, which is similar with constrained CA calibration using historical observed forms. Four planned schemes of Beijing Master Plan 2020 for Beijing metropolitan area are empirically analyzed using constrained CA to test FSA approach, and corresponding required policy parameters are generated, together with policy implications. FSA is proved to be suitable for urban planning practice.